Technology enables us to meet a need or solve a problem, like ordering food to our door, contacting family on the other side of the world, and learning new skills. But what about technology that helps us achieve goals on a larger scale, on issues that impact the world globally?
As we experience increasing global challenges, such as natural hazards and climate change, technology such as RiskScape enables us to understand, plan, and prepare for potential outcomes through risk analysis.
What is risk analysis?
There are many possibilities for each natural hazard, including the type, extent, location and timing of the event. Risk analysis is essential for building resilience, and developing sustainable solutions to address these global challenges.
Risk analysis considers the full picture impact of events such as natural hazards, which include:
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earthquakes
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landslides
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volcanic eruptions
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floods
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cyclones
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tsunamis.
From risk analysis, the following can be calculated:
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what assets (including people) will be exposed to the event
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the likely impacts of the event on these assets
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the likelihood of the event occurring
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actions that can be taken to reduce the impact.
How can technology help with risk analysis?
Technology speeds up the process of risk analysis, as tools can process the required data quickly and accurately. RiskScape(external link), an open source tool developed by Catalyst IT, NIWA(external link), GNS Science(external link) , and Toka Tū Ake EQC(external link) is an example of this. The technology provides a flexible multi-hazard risk modelling engine for processing geospatial data for comprehensive risk analysis. Therefore, with RiskScape, users can plan and prepare for events of any size, support recovery efforts and make risk-informed decisions.
RiskScape is designed so that if the science is available, it can model any hazard, including bushfires, wind storms, and even pandemics. Learn more about RiskScape in the following video.
How does RiskScape work?
RiskScape enables multi-hazard risk modelling, so how does it work? RiskScape is an ecosystem made up of:
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RiskScape projects: where the data and functions exist
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the RiskScape Engine: a highly-specialised risk calculator that processes sampling and analysis
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the RiskScape Platform: provides a way to run engines in the cloud and share and collaborate on RiskScape projects without going into the code
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Microsites: enables the results from RiskScape to be displayed in maps and graphs and simplifies the process of running new scenarios on engines, via the platform.
What is the benefit of RiskScape Engine being open source?
Since the RiskScape Engine is open source, the information isn’t locked away – anyone can access it to build their own model. Unlike “black box” proprietary models used elsewhere, all inputs to a RiskScape model, the model itself, and the supporting software are open source. This means that users can:
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view and audit all the processing steps in a model
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query and analyse how RiskScape uses supporting libraries to geoprocess, sample and perform calculations.
As RiskScape’s purpose is risk analysis and disaster modelling for natural hazards on an economic scale, it’s crucial that the technology is accessible to those who need it. Additionally, RiskScape was released under the AGPL license, ensuring that anyone who builds on RiskScape and wants to distribute their work must share their modifications. Therefore, any additional work is kept open.
RiskScape is also built on open source programming languages and complies with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards for spatial analysis of multi-hazard risk.
What advantages does RiskScape provide for emergency management?
RiskScape is advantageous for emergency management teams and government agencies, as the technology enables them to prepare for potential future risks and respond to events in real-time.
Example of RiskScape analysing the impact of events in real-time
RiskScape multi-hazard risk modelling was used to help guide emergency responses to landslide risks(external link) in the Auckland floods. The modelling was run twice a day to provide real-time insights on high-risk areas based on the rainfall at the time. Having access to this data helped emergency services make informed decisions, so they could allocate people and resources appropriately.
Example of RiskScape analysing the impact of events in the future
RiskScape was used recently to model a catastrophic event of a 9.1 Hikurangi subduction zone earthquake and tsunami occurring in New Zealand. RiskScape enabled the researchers to identify how long the earthquake would likely be, how many people would need to evacuate, how many people would be displaced and more. The complexities of this risk were able to be considered, and aid scientists to begin preparing for a disaster of that scale. Check out the insights of the modelling in the RNZ article. (external link)
How can RiskScape meet the needs of different sectors or countries?
RiskScape has the flexibility to consider multiple hazards, their interactions, and the scale of events which can be used to inform:
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councils if it’s safe to build in certain areas, and to what extent
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where buildings will be exposed to natural hazards, and to what extent.
RiskScape can also do both scenario and probabilistic analysis.
One example of scenario analysis is by using a building portfolio and a flood hazard map for a single event, RiskScape shows the amount of potential damage a flood could cause. You could review the repair costs for the building portfolio as a whole, or even individual buildings. Or you could use RiskScape to investigate how different building materials compare during different events in the same area.
Probabilistic analysis is when the likelihood of damage for a hazard is calculated. For instance, a 1 in 100 year event. This information is useful for insurance companies to determine an AAL (average annualised loss).
When the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai volcano erupted in Tonga in January 2022, RiskScape was used to model the impacts of three hazards(external link): the ash fall, tsunami, and sonic boom. ]
Additionally, RiskScape is supporting the work of PARTNeR-2(external link), a project funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) to support the Pacific region in risk-informed decisions. Catalyst is helping with the delivery and joined the NIWA and SPC (the Pacific Community) teams, most recently in a week-long training session in Port Vila, Vanuatu. Catalyst trained participants from government ministries in Vanuatu to run risk models in the RiskScape platform. The workshops helped Pacific Island countries assess the impacts of tropical cyclones, drought risks, and coastal inundation from sea level rises by using RiskScape. Catalyst has also run training in Fiji, and in New Zealand in Wellington and Christchurch, as well as remote sessions. If you’re interested in RiskScape training, please contact us.
RiskScape: driving innovation and resilience for communities
By providing insights for multi-hazard risk modelling, RiskScape helps shape resilient communities and informed decision-making. At Catalyst, our software engineering team is known to thrive on challenges and deliver future-proof solutions. Our collaboration with NIWA, GNS Science and Toka Tū Ake EQC supported the redesign of RiskScape to improve the ease of use of the platform.